Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 99% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Match O/U 22.5 | 98% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 75% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Set 2 Winner | 56% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 31% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton | 26% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of los cabos open: dalibor svrcina vs adam walton. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Dalibor Svrcina and Adam Walton in the Los Cabos Open, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
We track Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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