Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, with outbound vessel movements halted for weeks amid escalating conflict between the US and Iran. Current live trackers show near-zero transits, a stark drop from the pre-crisis average of roughly 60 ships daily, while oil prices have surged over 30% as a direct consequence of this bottleneck. President Trump has explicitly tied the strait’s reopening to any ceasefire deal with Tehran, yet peace negotiations have stalled, prompting a declared naval blockade against Iran.

Historical precedents suggest that such choke-point closures rarely resolve to normal traffic levels within a single month unless a major geopolitical shift occurs. During the brief reopening in April 2026, traffic resumed only for a day before closing again, underscoring the volatility of the situation. With current data showing daily averages hovering around 6 to 15 ships—roughly 5% of typical volume—the 59% implied probability of reaching 60 ships by July 31 appears optimistic compared to analyst consensus, which views the blockade as a persistent structural barrier rather than a temporary disruption.

Traders must monitor Trump’s diplomatic announcements and any shifts in Iranian naval tactics, particularly regarding the suspected mines Tehran may have deployed. Recent NBC News reporting confirms that peace talks have yielded minimal progress, reinforcing the likelihood of continued restrictions. Additionally, watch for discrepancies between AIS tracking data and actual transit counts, as some vessels alter GPS signals to bypass tolls, potentially masking true traffic volumes. The settlement hinges entirely on IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average, making official data releases the critical catalyst for any probability shift.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.