Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the permanent removal of a listed head of government from office before 2027, excluding temporary suspensions or caretaker roles. With a current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any leader exiting permanently, the market reflects a near-total consensus that no such event will occur within the settlement window ending 31 December 2026. This stands in stark contrast to sportsbook lines on political stability, which often assign non-zero odds to leadership crises, and diverges from some analyst consensus that views current pressures on leaders like Keir Starmer as potentially destabilising.

Historically, permanent removals are rare compared to election-driven transitions or resignations that do not constitute permanent exit. Cases such as Yoon Suk Yeol’s recent impeachment suspension illustrate how provisional transfers of power fail to meet the market’s strict criteria, while caretaker roles like Gabriel Attal’s in France similarly do not count as ceasing office. The 0% probability aligns with this precedent: most leadership changes in recent years involve scheduled elections or internal party replacements that keep the individual in office temporarily, rather than permanent dismissal.

Traders should monitor announcements of actual resignations, removals by parliamentary votes, or election losses that trigger permanent exit, rather than leadership challenges alone. Recent reports from TIME confirm Andy Burnham is on course to replace Starmer as UK Prime Minister, but his tenure remains contingent on whether an early general election is called and lost before the settlement deadline. No election is scheduled before August 2029, meaning any permanent exit would require an extraordinary, unscheduled event—a scenario the market currently deems implausible.

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Methodology

This page reviews Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.