Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is pricing a **65% chance** of a publicly announced second-phase Israel–Hamas ceasefire agreement, which sits above the more cautious tone in several recent briefings that describe Phase II as still dependent on unresolved issues such as Hamas disarmament, further Israeli withdrawal and Gaza’s post-war governance. The first phase did produce a concrete stop in fighting and a partial pullback, but that does not mechanically carry over into a second agreement, because the harder political terms are deferred to Phase II. [4][7][15]

For context, comparable ceasefire frameworks in Gaza have repeatedly shown that an initial truce can survive briefly while the follow-on phase stalls or collapses. The 2025 deal was structured in stages, but negotiations over the next phase did not deliver a durable settlement and hostilities later resumed; more recent reporting on the 2026 framework says Phase II was announced in January, yet talks remained stalled through the spring over Israeli attacks and disagreement on Hamas disarmament. That history explains why a mid-range probability is plausible, but also why markets often discount the final stage until there is a named text, confirmed mediator backing and sequencing on withdrawals and prisoner exchanges. [5][6][14][15]

Traders should watch for three catalysts: a formal joint statement from Israel and Hamas, a mediated announcement from the US, Qatar or Egypt, and any published schedule tying withdrawal steps to hostage-prisoner exchanges. Recent reporting said Netanyahu suggested Phase II could begin once the last hostage remains were returned, while earlier US statements framed the phase around “demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction”, which are the key sticking points that can move odds quickly if one side softens. On a cross-platform basis, sportsbook-style lines usually move on headline risk faster than consensus analyst views, while prediction markets tend to re-price only when a mutual, official agreement is visible rather than when negotiations are merely said to be “advancing”. [1][2][10][17][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.