GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI has not publicly announced GPT-6, and the current contract only resolves **Yes** if a model explicitly called GPT-6 is made generally available by 31 December 2025; closed testing would not count. That makes the present **0%** crowd price broadly consistent with the calendar: the market is already beyond the settlement window, so any tradeable residual value would be driven by contract error rather than release expectations.

The closest analogue is GPT-5.5, which shipped on 23 April 2026 after market chatter had treated it as a possible GPT-6 precursor, but OpenAI released it under a different name instead.[1][14] That kind of nomenclature risk matters here: traders betting on a numbered launch need a product with the exact public label, not merely the next major model. Comparable commentary across trackers has also pushed a true GPT-6 release into late 2026 or 2027, with some sources noting no official architecture, pricing, or launch date and others citing only closed-preview possibilities.[4][7][17]

For catalysts, the main variables are formal OpenAI announcements, model-catalog updates, and any rollout language that distinguishes public availability from private preview or enterprise testing. Recent write-ups also point to capacity and infrastructure buildout as gating factors, with public speculation repeatedly suggesting that even if GPT-6 is in development, the first visible step may be an API preview or restricted beta rather than open access.[13][15][17] On cross-platform odds, that leaves a notable gap between the market’s zero-implied probability, analyst-style estimates that still place a public GPT-6 later in 2026 or early 2027, and any sportsbook-style line would likely remain unavailable or extremely stale for a contract that has already missed its deadline.[4][7][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.