Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Ships are currently avoiding the Strait of Hormuz due to active conflict, with reports of GPS jamming, AIS spoofing, and vessels deliberately going dark to evade attacks on commercial traffic[2][5]. This market bets on whether any daily transit count reported by IMF Portwatch will reach the listed threshold before June 30, 2026, despite the current 12% implied probability of a “Yes” outcome[1]. The settlement relies strictly on finalized data points, meaning a ship must be officially recorded before it counts, and unreported vessels are excluded entirely[1][7].

Historically, over 30,000 vessels pass this chokepoint annually, with daily oil flows exceeding 20 million barrels in 2022, yet recent IMF Portwatch data shows no meaningful recovery in shipping volumes[4][6]. Comparable cases from the Red Sea disruptions suggest that even partial blockages can suppress traffic for months, and the current 12% odds reflect a market sceptical of a rapid return to normalcy[9]. Unlike sportsbook lines that might price a binary event at 50%, prediction markets here diverge sharply from analyst consensus, which remains cautious given the ongoing security risks[2].

Traders should monitor weekly IMF Portwatch revisions and any official announcements regarding de-escalation or naval escorts, as these are the primary catalysts for traffic recovery[3][10]. Recent updates through March 5th indicate continued stagnation, and the next data point will be critical for confirming whether the 7-day moving average can ever breach the threshold[1][10]. The settlement window ends in 2026, so any shift in conflict dynamics or international intervention could alter the odds, but current dependencies remain tied to the persistence of active hostilities[2][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.