Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran faces intense US pressure to publicly guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington demanding an official pledge to halt attacks on commercial vessels ahead of critical negotiations in Oman. Despite these diplomatic overtures, Tehran has instead tightened its grip, charging up to $2 million for safe passage and explicitly barring US and Israeli-linked ships from transit, signalling a refusal to offer the unconditional commitment required for this market to resolve YES [1][3].

Historical precedents suggest such explicit, unconditional pledges are rare when Iran retains leverage over the waterway; the regime previously threatened closure as a retaliatory first step against Israeli actions rather than issuing binding non-aggression declarations [2]. The current 2% implied probability aligns with this pattern, reflecting a market consensus that Iran views control of the strait as essential negotiating capital rather than a concession to be surrendered, a stance consistent with recent missile strikes on tankers that underscore its diminishing but still active dominance [7].

Traders should monitor the outcome of the Oman talks led by US Vice President JD Vance, where navigation rights remain the primary sticking point, alongside any sudden declarative statements from Iranian leadership [6]. Recent reports confirm the US is seeking a public guarantee that the strait is open and that vessels will not be targeted, yet Iranian officials have labelled US forces as “errant” and accused them of attacking ships, further complicating the prospect of a clean commitment [1]. No official announcement meeting the market’s strict criteria has emerged as the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.