0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Zero ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz would mark a total closure of the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, halting roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows. The market’s 0% implied probability reflects the June 17 US–Iran agreement that mandated immediate reopening of commercial navigation, with 25 vessels already crossing on 25 June—the highest daily volume since April [2].

Historically, the strait has seen near-zero traffic only during active conflict phases, such as the February–April 2026 blockade when crude exports fell 90% and ten of nineteen days recorded zero activity [1][4]. However, the current MOU requires the US to lift its naval blockade by 19 July, while Iran commits to restoring pre-war traffic levels within the same window, making a full shutdown unlikely before the settlement date [2].

Traders should monitor the 19 July blockade-lift deadline and any security incidents that could prompt Iran to reverse reopening, as happened briefly on 21–22 April 2026 [2][5]. Recent AXSMarine data confirms sustained daily crossings, with no IMF PortWatch report yet showing zero arrivals since the agreement [2][7]. Sportsbooks and analyst consensus align with prediction markets, all pricing near-zero odds for a complete halt, given the binding diplomatic framework and verified vessel flows.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.