Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 89% |
| Game 1 Winner | 81% |
| Game 2 Winner | 81% |
| Game Handicap: DCG (-1.5) vs DetonatioN FocusMe (+1.5) | 67% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 63% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 63% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 62% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 31% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
Deep Cross Gaming’s Bo3 against DetonatioN FocusMe in the LCP Group Stage is being priced as a clear favourite on the contract, with the crowd-implied **81%** for Deep Cross Gaming sitting well above the kind of near-even pricing seen on some esports books for the same rivalry earlier in the season. Recent head-to-head results cut against DetonatioN FocusMe: Deep Cross Gaming swept them **2-0** in an LCP regular-season meeting in February, while broader match-history pages list Deep Cross Gaming with the stronger record in the pairing. [7][13][2]
That makes the current market look consistent with form-based consensus rather than a single-source outlier, though the edge is larger than some external match pages suggest. Strafe has DetonatioN FocusMe as a unanimous public pick in this exact fixture, which highlights a meaningful divergence between retail sentiment and the market price, while other prediction-style pages and betting listings have shown Deep Cross Gaming favoured in previous meetings. [4][3][15]
For traders, the main catalysts are confirmation that the match starts on schedule, whether the published Bo3 format is unchanged, and any late schedule movement that could push settlement into the market’s 7-day fallback rules. The event listing shows the fixture on **1 August** at **09:00 UTC**, and the LCP’s own social post indicates the split was continuing that day, which supports the expectation that the match is live unless an official postponement is announced. [4][16]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) -… on Kalshi vs Polymarket
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