LoL: Conviction vs Dorado Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Conviction’s BO3 against Dorado Gaming in the North American Challengers League Group Stage was priced by the crowd at a near-certain Conviction win, but that sits at the far end of the market relative to other venues. BO3.gg showed Conviction around **1.177** to win outright, which implies roughly an 85% chance before margin, while another betting comparison page listed Conviction at about **1.65** and labelled the match as still pending[2][10][12]. By contrast, Strafe displayed a simple **50/50** vote split and no material consensus edge, showing that analyst-style or community-facing models have not all converged on the same level of certainty[6].

The historical frame leans Conviction’s way. The teams had already met twice this year, with Conviction winning both series, including a 2-0 over Dorado Gaming in their most recent reported meeting on 14 May 2026[3][5][6]. Those same sources also place Conviction higher in ranking and better recent form, while Dorado Gaming has tended to sit lower in the standings and arrive with weaker momentum, which helps explain why most external lines favour Conviction even if not at a pure 100%[3][9][12]. For traders, the key catalysts are whether the scheduled July 31 start holds, whether the broadcast or results pages update to a completed BO3, and whether any late roster or schedule changes appear on match trackers; multiple listings still marked the series as upcoming at the time of reporting[1][4][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track LoL: Conviction vs Dorado Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.