LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Platform comparison

Market context

Anyone’s Legend face Karmine Corp in the League of Legends Quarterfinal 2 of the Esports World Cup Playoffs, a best-of-three match scheduled for 7:00AM ET on 17 July. The crowd-implied probability of 73% favouring Anyone’s Legend aligns closely with Strafe’s user vote share of 73.3% for the same outcome, suggesting tight consensus across prediction platforms rather than a divergence [1]. This level of agreement mirrors patterns seen in earlier EWC 2026 qualifiers, where community votes and implied probabilities rarely deviated by more than 4% before matches began, indicating that early market pricing often stabilises quickly when team rosters are confirmed and no major injuries are reported [3].

Traders should monitor the official Esports World Cup broadcast schedule on DAZN for any delays or format adjustments, as the settlement window closes at 19:30 UTC on 17 July and unresolved matches default to a 50-50 split [2]. With the match set to begin in under three hours, the primary catalyst is confirmation that the game starts and completes without cancellation, which would trigger the tie rule. No recent roster changes or injury announcements have been reported for either side, reducing the likelihood of pre-match volatility, but any live stream interruption or technical delay beyond seven days would reset the contract’s implied probability to neutral.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.