Dota 2: Execration vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A

Platform comparison

Market context

Execration’s BO3 against Amaru Gaming in the Games of the Future Group A is the real-world event behind this contract, and the current prediction-market price of **100% YES** leaves almost no room for uncertainty about the favourite. The available pre-match comparison data pointed the same way: Execration were ranked higher on Strafe, at **#21** versus Amaru Gaming’s **#28**, and had the better recent record, winning **2 of their last 5** compared with Amaru’s **1 of 5**.[2] Head-to-head is not a useful separator here because the teams had **not met before** under these tags.[1][2]

That said, the match is still best read as a live-event contract rather than a pure form bet. Comparable stat pages showed Execration carrying slightly stronger team-level efficiency over the past three months, including a higher win rate and KDA on DLTV’s sampling, while Amaru’s numbers were more mixed despite similar GPM output.[1] A 100% implied probability on the market therefore looks much more extreme than the underlying team data alone, suggesting the contract is pricing in either a very decisive consensus on the result or thin liquidity rather than a clean statistical edge.

The main catalysts for traders are not tactical but operational: confirmation that the series is actually played, whether the reported start time holds, and whether bracket or stream listings change at short notice. Multiple event pages had the fixture active as a live or scheduled Group A match on 1 August, which reduces cancellation risk but does not eliminate settlement risk if the game is delayed, abandoned, or affected by tournament rescheduling.[3][4][5] Because this market resolves to 50-50 if the match is not played, ties, or a delay runs beyond seven days, the key watchpoint is the organiser’s match status rather than in-game momentum.[Market description]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Execration vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.