Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) faces a critical hurdle as it awaits Senate action, with the 41% implied probability on prediction markets reflecting significant uncertainty about its passage before the end of 2026. While the House passed the bill with bipartisan support in July 2025, the legislation now sits with the Senate Banking Committee, which has instead prioritised a discussion draft of the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, creating a legislative bottleneck that diverges from the faster trajectory seen with the GENIUS Act earlier that year[3].

Historically, comprehensive crypto market-structure bills in the US have struggled to overcome Senate inertia despite House approval, with the 2022 Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act remaining stalled for years as a comparable case. This pattern suggests that the current 41% probability is not merely a reflection of political noise but a rational assessment of the Senate’s tendency to delay or replace such measures with alternative frameworks, a divergence that sportsbooks often miss by applying generic legislative timelines rather than sector-specific hurdles.

Traders should monitor the Senate Banking Committee’s schedule for any hearings on H.R.3633 or announcements regarding a merger with the RFIA draft, as these will be the primary catalysts for movement. Recent reporting indicates the committee is actively developing its own version of crypto regulation, which could either absorb the CLARITY Act’s provisions or supersede them entirely, altering the resolution path for this contract[3]. Any formal introduction of a Senate companion bill or a scheduled vote before the autumn session would likely shift implied probabilities sharply, whereas continued silence risks the market resolving to “No” as the 2026 deadline approaches.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.