Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this contract is the highest temperature recorded at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sits at 0%, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specified range. This stark divergence from sportsbook lines—where some analysts still assign a non-trivial chance to extreme heat—raises questions about whether the prediction market is underestimating historical volatility or overreacting to recent mild forecasts.

Historically, July in LaGuardia has seen highs ranging from 81°F to 99°F, with the all-time record hitting 107°F on 3 July 1966[1][4]. The climate normal for 1 July shows a maximum of 85°F, last exceeded in 2021[2]. While recent forecasts suggest a high of 80°F for the day[5], the wide historical spread and the 2021 anomaly indicate that a 0% probability may be overly conservative. Traders should weigh whether the market is ignoring the possibility of a sudden heat spike akin to past extremes.

Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s daily updates and any sudden shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover that could elevate temperatures. A recent AccuWeather forecast for July 2026 predicts highs up to 99°F, with overnight lows between 68°F and 83°F[1]. Traders should monitor the Wunderground history page for real-time data as the settlement window closes on 1 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC. Any deviation from the 80°F forecast could significantly alter the implied probability, especially if heat index values rise above 99 as seen in recent days[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.