World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is underway, and the focus here is on how many penalty kicks taken during regular, stoppage, or extra time are missed or saved by defenders, excluding shootout attempts. Current market data shows a 1% implied probability that the total number of missed penalties will reach or exceed the listed threshold, suggesting traders view a high volume of non‑conceded penalties as highly unlikely.

Historically, World Cup penalty conversion rates remain exceptionally high; in the 2022 tournament, over 80% of open‑time penalties were scored, with only a handful saved or missed. The 1994 final’s infamous miss by Roberto Baggio stands as a rare outlier, while recent data from the 2026 competition shows Switzerland scoring their first open‑time penalty, indicating early‑stage volatility but not a surge in misses[2][6]. Given this pattern, the 1% probability aligns with the expectation that most penalties will be converted, making a high miss count improbable.

Traders should monitor official match reports for penalty decisions, referee announcements on foul calls, and team news regarding key strikers’ fitness, as these directly influence penalty frequency and success rates. Recent coverage from Fox Sports highlights the emotional weight of missed penalties and notes that conversion remains the norm, reinforcing the market’s low probability stance[6]. Any shift in referee strictness or injury to top finishers could alter the trajectory, but current indicators support the view that missed penalties will remain scarce.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.