Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature in degrees Celsius on 13 July 2026, with settlement determined by the absolute daily minimum figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside whichever range option carries that probability assignment—likely an extreme cold threshold that would be highly unusual for mid-summer Hong Kong.

July temperatures in Hong Kong historically cluster between 24°C and 28°C for daily minima, with the Observatory's 30-year climate normals showing July averages around 26°C. Extreme lows below 20°C in July are exceptionally rare; the territory's subtropical monsoon climate produces warm, humid conditions throughout summer. Comparable July days from recent decades show minimum temperatures rarely dipping below 23°C, establishing a baseline for evaluating which temperature bands carry realistic probability weight. The 0% reading on the current market likely reflects a narrow or extreme range option rather than scepticism about temperature measurement itself.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any published advisories for July 2026 as the date approaches. Tropical cyclone activity represents the primary catalyst that could produce anomalous cooling; the Northwest Pacific typhoon season peaks in August but occasionally affects July conditions. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and daily records reliably, ensuring settlement data will be available by the specified window close on 13 July at 12:00 UTC. Cross-platform comparison shows prediction markets and sportsbooks rarely diverge on straightforward meteorological outcomes, though the 0% probability here may reflect limited liquidity rather than genuine consensus.

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.