Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature in degrees Celsius on 17 August 2026, with settlement determined by the absolute daily minimum published in their Daily Extract dataset. The current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders across platforms view the outcome as either extremely unlikely or are pricing in substantial uncertainty around which temperature band will materialise on that specific date.

Hong Kong's August climate presents a narrow historical window for extreme cold. Daily minimum temperatures in mid-August typically range between 25–27°C, with the Observatory's records showing August absolute minima rarely dip below 23°C. The 0% probability across prediction markets reflects the absence of credible meteorological scenarios for August 17 producing temperatures outside the expected seasonal range. Cross-platform comparison reveals no meaningful divergence between sportsbooks and prediction markets on this contract, as traditional betting venues do not typically offer granular weather derivatives at this resolution level.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity tracking towards the region in early August 2026. Typhoon systems represent the primary catalyst for anomalous temperature patterns during summer months, though even major systems typically elevate rather than suppress daily minima. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 August, with final data publication dependent on the Observatory's standard reporting schedule. No scheduled announcements or policy changes are anticipated to influence temperature measurement methodology before the resolution date.

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.