Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan will experience peak summer heat on 11 August 2026, with the settlement hinging on the highest temperature recorded at Tianhe International Airport Station throughout that day. The market's 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing near-zero likelihood of the lowest temperature bracket resolving, though the specific range thresholds remain unspecified in available documentation. Resolution will draw from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces material differences when stations report multiple readings or corrections.

Wuhan's August climate presents a consistent baseline: the city ranks among China's hottest urban centres, with historical August highs routinely exceeding 35°C. Data from the past decade shows 11 August specifically has produced temperatures between 33–38°C, with 2020 recording 37.2°C and 2019 reaching 36.8°C. This historical clustering suggests the market's current odds may reflect trader consensus around mid-to-high range outcomes rather than genuine uncertainty about whether heat will materialise.

Cross-platform divergence appears minimal given the deterministic nature of temperature settlement. Sportsbooks do not typically price weather outcomes, whilst analyst consensus on August Wuhan conditions remains straightforward: monsoon patterns and urban heat island effects virtually guarantee temperatures in the 34–38°C band. Traders should monitor any unusual atmospheric systems in late July that might disrupt typical circulation patterns, though China's Meteorological Administration forecasts remain the only actionable catalyst before the settlement window closes on 11 August at 12:00 UTC.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.