Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan’s highest temperature on 10 August will be judged against the airport station’s **Daily Observations** on Weather Underground, so the live market is really about where the day’s maximum ends up within the contract’s Celsius bands rather than the broader city average. Current Polymarket pricing is clustered around **29°C (46.2%)** and **30°C (38%)**, with the rest of the curve falling quickly into 31°C and above, while the crowd-implied probability shown for the contract is still **0% YES**; that gap suggests either stale participation or a market that has not yet aligned with the platform’s active pricing. Wuhan’s August climate is strongly heat-prone: long-run sources put average highs around **33–35°C**, with historical extremes reaching about **40–41°C** in late summer, which means the market is not debating whether it can be hot, but how hot on this specific day.[10][11][4][5]

Comparable cases in Wuhan usually resolve in the upper-20s to mid-30s Celsius unless a heatwave is entrenched, and late-summer records show that very high readings are possible when subtropical highs dominate. Against that backdrop, the current price structure looks conservative versus climate norms, because August averages are well above 30°C and several historical datasets show typical maximums in the low-to-mid 30s rather than the high-20s.[11][4][8] On the cross-platform comparison, the main divergence is between the Polymarket book, which implies a narrow centre of mass around 29–30°C, and the market’s 0% YES crowd signal; there is no visible sportsbook line in the supplied data, so the useful comparison is between the active order book and the contract’s thin crowd read.

Traders should watch the hourly forecast evolution, cloud cover, rainfall chances, and any convective shower risk, because a damp or overcast morning can cap the maximum even in a hot climate. As of the latest weather snapshot, Wuhan was around **27°C** with patchy rain nearby, high humidity, and a forecast high of **29°C**, which would leave the contract near the lower end of the listed range if verified by the airport station later in the day.[14] The key dependency is not the city forecast headline but the station reading on Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, which can diverge from summary highs and will determine settlement if there is any discrepancy.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.