Highest temperature in Wellington on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature on 12 August 2026, with this market resolving to whichever temperature band captures the highest reading logged in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the market reflects expectations for a specific southern hemisphere winter's day in New Zealand's capital region.

Wellington's August temperatures typically range between 7 and 13 degrees Celsius, with historical August averages sitting around 10 degrees. The current 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are pricing in either exceptionally cold conditions or technical uncertainty around the resolution methodology—specifically the reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations rather than the Day High & Low summary, which can occasionally diverge. This divergence has proven material in previous weather markets, particularly when station equipment logs micro-fluctuations that summary tables smooth over.

The key variable traders should monitor is the Southern Oscillation Index and any polar outbreaks tracking toward New Zealand in late July and early August 2026. MetService New Zealand publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks in advance; any significant cold-air advisory would likely shift market pricing. Additionally, the specific temperature bands offered in this market structure matter considerably—a market offering ranges like 8–10°C versus 10–12°C will see different participation depending on historical frequency data. Traders should verify the exact band definitions before positioning, as the 0% probability may reflect genuine climatic expectations or simply sparse liquidity in an obscure weather contract.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.