Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 10 August will almost certainly be a low-teen Celsius reading, because August in the city typically averages around 11–12°C for daily highs and the broader Wellington climate is strongly marine and windy rather than heat-prone.[1][2][6] The market’s 0% crowd-implied probability for a very high outcome looks consistent with that seasonal profile, especially since recent Wellington August daily observations on Weather Underground have mostly clustered between 48°F and 61°F, with only one early-month spike to 61°F and several days below 55°F.[7] In other words, the cross-platform pricing is pointing to a narrow range outcome, while the underlying weather history suggests that even a modest upside surprise would still be unusual rather than routine.[1][7]

Comparable August data support treating this as a low-volatility temperature market rather than a binary weather shock trade. Wellington’s August averages are stable across multiple climate references, with typical highs around 12°C and record highs in the mid-teens Celsius, while historical tables show frequent rain and persistent wind that tend to limit sharp daytime warming.[2][13][15] For prediction-market traders, that means the main reference point is not the headline “Day High & Low” summary but the Daily Observations table, which the contract explicitly uses for settlement, so any intraday peak shown there matters more than the summary figure.[7] That distinction is important because a small discrepancy between displayed aggregates and the recorded daily observation can determine the final bucket.

The key catalyst is whether Auckland or Wellington airport observation data show a brief warm-up between overnight rain bands and the afternoon sea breeze, since Wellington’s coastal location can produce short-lived maxima even on otherwise cool days.[7][8][10] The most relevant dependency is the live Weather Underground daily observations entry for Wellington Intl Airport, which may update through the day and is the sole resolution source for the contract.[7] With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC, traders should focus on the daytime local-temperature evolution rather than any broader city forecast, because the contract resolves on the highest recorded temperature at that specific station and date.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.