Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July 9, 2026 high temperature at Haneda Airport is the real-world event determining this contract, with current crowd-implied probability at 0% for any outcome above 30°C on the specified platform. This stark divergence from Polymarket’s 97% consensus for 30°C and Lines.com’s 31.5% implied probability for exactly 29°C reveals a fragmented market where sportsbook-style lines and prediction-market odds clash significantly. Historical patterns confirm mid-to-late July routinely hits 36–40°C across Tokyo and Osaka with 95%+ humidity, turning the city into a concrete jungle where peak heat spans 11 AM to 6 PM, making the 0% probability on the current platform an outlier against decades of meteorological data.

Traders must monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s official daily forecasts, which publish regularly and can shift prices sharply before the July 9 resolution window closes at 12:00 UTC. Recent records underscore this volatility: Isesaki, 85km northwest of Tokyo, hit 40.2°C on Saturday, while Tamba city recorded Japan’s all-time high of 41.2°C, both confirmed by JMA and reported by World Meteorological Organization sources. These extreme readings suggest forecast models are converging toward higher bands, yet the current 0% implied probability ignores this trend entirely. The contract resolves YES only if the official high lands exactly on the selected temperature band, with any deviation—such as 28°C or 30°C—closing the bet at zero, demanding precise attention to JMA updates rather than fragmented market noise.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.