Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the daily maximum temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 7 July 2026, a date that historically sits within Japan’s peak summer heat window. Current crowd-implied probability for the 27°C bin is 0% YES, yet this stark divergence clashes with analyst consensus suggesting a 38% chance for that exact range, while cross-platform odds on Bitget show live trading for 27°C outcomes on similar July contracts. This mismatch between prediction-market silence and sportsbook activity signals either a liquidity gap or a mispricing of seasonal heat expectations.

Historical data frames this probability carefully: July highs in Haneda typically range from 27°C to 31°C, with recent records in Tamba city hitting 41.2°C, indicating regional volatility that can spill into Tokyo. The Met Office forecast for Haneda today lists a maximum of 27°C, while AccuWeather’s July 2026 monthly outlook projects daily highs between 25°C and 33°C, reinforcing that 27°C is a plausible, not anomalous, outcome. Traders should watch the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heat advisories and Wunderground’s hourly updates, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or rain—like the drizzle reported today—can suppress temperatures below the 27°C threshold.

Key catalysts include the agency’s scheduled 10:00 UTC heat bulletin and any unexpected typhoon activity in the Pacific, which could alter wind patterns and cool the airport zone. Recent news from the BBC confirms light rain and drizzle at Haneda today, a dependency that directly impacts the maximum temperature reading. With settlement ending 2026-07-07T12:00:00Z, the next 16 hours of real-time data will determine whether the 0% YES probability holds or corrects to reflect the 38% analyst estimate.

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Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.