Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a metric that determines the outcome of a prediction market currently implying zero probability for a "YES" result. This stark 0% crowd-implied probability suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined winning range, yet historical data for early July in Tokyo indicates highs frequently reach 25–30°C, with mid-to-late July often surging to 36–40°C under extreme humidity[3]. The divergence between this near-certain "NO" sentiment and the region’s typical thermal behaviour mirrors similar mispricings seen in sportsbook lines where weather-dependent contracts are undervalued due to short-term forecast noise rather than seasonal trends.

Traders should monitor the immediate progression of the hot season, which spans from late June to mid-September, with average daily highs consistently exceeding 79°F (26°C)[6]. While today’s forecast for Haneda predicts a modest 25°C with light rain[1], the broader climate pattern for July 2026 forecasts daily highs between 76°F and 91°F (24–33°C)[4], creating a significant catalyst for potential range breaches. The recent record of 41.2°C set in Japan in July 2025 further underscores the volatility of summer temperatures in the region, suggesting that early July could still experience anomalous spikes[7]. Analyst consensus on similar contracts often diverges from prediction-market odds when short-term precipitation forecasts overshadow the long-term heat trend, a dynamic traders must weigh against the current 0% implied probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.