Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a single data point that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to a “YES” result for any specific threshold. This event is not abstract; it is a concrete meteorological measurement in degrees Celsius, sourced from Wunderground, that will settle against predefined temperature ranges. The market’s implied probability of 0% suggests traders believe no outcome will trigger a positive resolution, yet this stance diverges sharply from cross-platform odds where Polymarket’s frontrunner is 27°C at 57% and Lines.com assigns 35% to 26°C, revealing a meaningful gap between prediction-market consensus and analyst expectations.

Historical patterns frame this divergence: Tokyo’s July average temperature is 28.7°C with humidity at 77.6%, and the hot season runs from late June to mid-September with daily highs consistently above 79°F, while Japan recorded its highest-ever temperature of 41.2°C in Tamba City last July amid a lingering heat wave[7][8]. These precedents indicate that a 27°C or 26°C peak is statistically plausible, contradicting the 0% crowd-implied probability and suggesting the market may be mispricing the likelihood of moderate heat. Traders should watch the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heat warnings, which have flagged “extremely high” temperatures in recent days, and monitor real-time updates from Wunderground as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 4 July[10]. The dependency on a single station’s reading means local cloud cover or rain—common in July—could suppress the peak, but the broader heat wave context increases the risk of higher-than-expected temperatures.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.