Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces a scorching mid-July day as the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station records its peak temperature for 16 July 2026, the sole metric determining settlement for this weather contract. Current conditions show temperatures climbing between 28°C and 32°C with no precipitation, while forecast models suggest a slight drop to 29°C tomorrow accompanied by light rain [1]. The market’s 0% implied probability for the “YES” outcome reflects a crowd consensus that the day’s peak will fall outside the specific range required for a win, likely due to the upper bound of the current 32°C expectation being insufficient for the contract’s threshold.

Historical data from previous July 16s in Tokyo often sees peaks exceeding 35°C during heatwaves, yet the current 32°C ceiling aligns more closely with moderate summer years rather than extreme outliers. This divergence between typical high-heat years and the present forecast explains the stark 0% pricing, as traders compare the current 32°C ceiling against the 35°C+ benchmarks that usually drive similar contracts to resolve positively. The absence of extreme heat indicators in the immediate forecast reinforces the crowd’s bearish stance on the temperature range hitting the required level.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as hourly fluctuations could shift the peak temperature if a sudden heat spike occurs before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes. While no major weather announcements are scheduled for today, the light breeze and lack of precipitation currently support stable temperature readings, limiting the likelihood of a dramatic upward deviation [1]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind patterns before noon UTC would be the primary catalyst for a probability re-rating, though current data suggests the peak will remain near the 32°C mark.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.