Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 14 July 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's maximum reading in Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting traders are either awaiting range options or treating this as a placeholder market pending full contract specifications.

July temperatures at Haneda historically cluster between 28–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heatwave conditions. The 2023 summer saw Tokyo experience multiple days exceeding 37°C, whilst the 2010 record of 39.5°C remains the city's highest reliably measured temperature. These precedents establish the plausible range: markets typically see meaningful probability mass distributed across 30–35°C bands, with tail risk concentrated above 36°C. The 0% current reading reflects incomplete market information rather than consensus that temperatures will fall outside normal summer bounds.

Japanese Meteorological Agency forecasts and real-time atmospheric monitoring become critical inputs as July 2026 approaches. El Niño or La Niña conditions, monsoon patterns, and Pacific high-pressure systems will drive whether the day tracks toward seasonal norms or exceptional heat. Traders should monitor JMA seasonal outlooks released in early summer 2026 and any heat advisories issued within 48 hours of the settlement date. Cross-platform comparison will likely show Kalshi and Polymarket diverging on tail-risk pricing once ranges are finalised, given their different liquidity profiles and user bases' risk appetite for extreme-weather outcomes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.