Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo is entering its peak heatwave period as July 13, 2026, arrives, with the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station expected to record temperatures well above 30°C. The prediction market for the highest temperature on this date currently shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the specific threshold in question is virtually unattainable under current forecasts. AccuWeather projects daily highs at Haneda ranging from 29°C to 33°C (76°F to 91°F) for the month, placing the day firmly within the typical mid-summer range rather than an extreme outlier [1].

Historical data frames this 0% probability as plausible given recent trends, yet caution is warranted as Japan has shattered national records in recent years. In July 2025, the nation set a new all-time high of 41.2°C in Tamba City, and July 2024 was the hottest July on record nationwide with an average 2.89°C above the 1991–2020 baseline [5][7]. While Haneda typically stays cooler than inland cities like Kumagaya, where 41.1°C was recorded in 2018, the upward trajectory of summer temperatures means traders should not dismiss the possibility of a sudden spike entirely [3].

Traders must monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heat advisories and real-time Wunderground updates for Haneda, as the market settles strictly on the station’s recorded maximum [1]. A significant divergence exists between the 0% prediction-market odds and the analyst consensus that mid-to-late July in Tokyo frequently hits 36°C to 40°C in urban zones, though Haneda’s coastal location usually moderates this [6]. The key catalyst is the development of any high-pressure system pushing temperatures above the 33°C forecast ceiling, which would instantly invalidate the current crowd-implied certainty.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.