Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 12 August 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured against historical August heat patterns. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect the settlement range to fall outside whatever threshold defines a YES resolution—though the specific temperature boundaries are not disclosed in the market description provided.

August temperatures at Tokyo Haneda typically peak between 32–35°C, with extreme heat days occasionally reaching 36–37°C. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that mid-August heat waves have become more frequent over the past decade, with 2023 recording multiple days above 35°C during the same period. The 0% crowd probability indicates either a very high threshold for YES resolution or traders' confidence that seasonal norms will hold. Cross-platform comparison reveals minimal activity on competing sportsbooks for this specific contract, suggesting limited arbitrage opportunities between prediction markets and traditional weather betting venues.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts for heat waves or high-pressure systems over the Kanto region. The resolution methodology specifies Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, creating a technical dependency on that platform's data collection at Haneda. Any discrepancies between Weather Underground and official JMA readings could affect settlement interpretation, though the market has explicitly prioritised the former source.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.