Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market centres on the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 11 August 2026, with resolution determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the market's current state, though this represents a snapshot rather than settled consensus across platforms. Temperature ranges for this market have not been specified in available documentation, making direct comparison with other prediction venues difficult at present.

Tokyo's August climate presents consistent patterns that inform baseline expectations. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows August highs at Haneda typically range between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 2010 heat wave saw Tokyo record 40.5°C, though such extremes remain statistical outliers. August 2026 falls within the typical summer monsoon season, when Pacific high-pressure systems dominate and humidity remains elevated. Previous years' August temperatures at Haneda provide the most direct comparable reference for calibrating probability distributions across this market.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or unusual atmospheric conditions. El Niño or La Niña patterns developing through 2025–2026 could influence summer temperatures, though such signals typically emerge months in advance. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's specific data source creates a dependency worth monitoring; any platform outages or data discrepancies during the settlement window could affect final determination. Current sportsbook lines on Japanese summer temperatures remain unavailable for direct comparison with this market's implied probability.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.