Highest temperature in Taipei on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei Songshan Airport is set to record its peak daily temperature for 13 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that high. While the current crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome on this specific contract sits at 0%, this figure likely reflects a mismatch in the contract’s binary framing rather than a belief that temperatures will be cool. Polymarket data shows the leading outcome is 34°C at 40%, followed closely by 35°C at 36%, indicating traders expect a hot day consistent with July averages of 92°F [1][2].

Historical context frames this probability divergence sharply. July is the hottest month in Taipei, and the city recently recorded a 124-year high of 39.7°C on 24 July, demonstrating the region’s capacity for extreme heat [3][5]. The 0% implied probability on the binary contract contrasts with the 76% combined probability Polymarket assigns to the 34–35°C range, suggesting the binary market may be mispriced or structured around an unlikely threshold [1]. Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s hourly updates for the Songshan Airport station, particularly the 08:00 readings which track apparent temperature and humidity, as these variables directly influence the peak daily figure [8].

With precipitation chances near 50% and thunderstorms possible overnight, the immediate weather trajectory remains volatile [6]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, meaning the final resolution depends entirely on the Wunderground record for that specific day [1]. Given the recent record-breaking heat and typical July highs, the 0% line appears to diverge significantly from the analyst consensus on temperature ranges, creating a notable odds discrepancy between the binary market and range-based platforms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.