Highest temperature in Taipei on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s high temperature for the day is the key variable, because this contract settles on the *highest* reading recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport in Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table, not the headline day-high figure. Early readings on Weather Underground were already in the mid-30s Celsius equivalent, with the station shown at 94°F/80°F at 7:02am CST, while other forecasters were clustering around 92–93°F for the day, implying a likely settlement zone near the low-to-mid 30s Celsius rather than anything extreme.[4][1][3]

That sits broadly in line with the August climate for Taipei, where average highs are commonly put around 30–33°C and peaks in the mid-30s are routine rather than exceptional.[2][11][16][17] On comparable forecast contracts, the gap between a 0% crowd-implied price and the weather outlook often reflects stale liquidity or overconfidence in a narrow band, not a real expectation of no outcome; here, the cross-platform picture is more consistent with a warm, humid afternoon and some shower/thunderstorm risk, which can cap the upside only if cloud cover and rain arrive early.[1][3][5][6]

The main catalysts are the midday evolution of the local forecast and whether convection develops over northern Taiwan, because several services call for showers or thunderstorms later in the day rather than a clean, uniform heat peak.[1][3][5][6] Traders should watch the live Weather Underground station updates at Songshan Airport, since that is the primary source for resolution, and compare them with the broader Taipei forecasts from AccuWeather, timeanddate, and The Weather Network to see whether the market’s 0% YES pricing is finally being corrected by the spot temperature path.[1][3][4][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.