Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at hand is the highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome on this contract sits at 0%, a stark divergence from Polymarket’s own pricing, which heavily favours 32°C (44.5%) and 31°C (31.5%) as the most likely outcomes. Analyst consensus, grounded in climatological norms and the ongoing Southwest Monsoon, projects above-average temperatures but below-average rainfall through August, suggesting the 0% figure reflects a mispricing rather than a genuine climatic anomaly [1].

Historical data from 1991 to 2020 shows July average highs in Singapore at 31°C, with daytime temperatures rarely exceeding 34°C (93°F) [2]. While July 2024 marked the warmest July globally, Singapore’s local extremes remain constrained by maritime influences, though a 40-year record of 37°C was recently posted [3][8]. Traders should monitor the Meteorological Service Singapore’s monsoon forecasts and any sudden shifts in humidity or wind patterns, as the Southwest Monsoon typically delivers drier, sunnier conditions that elevate peak temperatures [1]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but real-time Wunderground data will be the definitive settlement source, requiring close attention to hourly fluctuations on the day itself [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.