Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen is experiencing overcast conditions with an 84°F reading at Bao'an International Airport, yet the prediction market for the city’s peak temperature on 21 July 2026 shows a 0% implied probability for any outcome, suggesting the contract is either mispriced or awaiting a specific resolution trigger. This flat pricing diverges sharply from historical climate data, where mid-July in Shenzhen routinely sees highs exceeding 35°C, creating a stark contrast between the 0% market line and the near-certain reality of extreme summer heat in the region.

Historical records from Wunderground confirm that Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport has consistently recorded peak temperatures between 33°C and 37°C during late July in previous years, framing the current 0% probability as an outlier against established weather patterns. Comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 show no instances of July 21 temperatures falling below 30°C, indicating that the market’s current odds ignore the region’s predictable monsoon-season thermal ceiling and fail to account for the statistical likelihood of a high-temperature event.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground archive for the Bao'an station, as the market resolves solely on the highest recorded temperature for that specific day, with no external announcements or schedules influencing the outcome. Recent weather bulletins from AccuWeather highlight current humidity levels of 83% and cloud cover at 91%, which may suppress peak temperatures slightly but rarely below the 30°C threshold that would invalidate a 0% probability stance. The settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 21 July 2026 means the final data point will be locked within hours, leaving little room for late-stage probability shifts.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.