Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges. The market will settle using the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces materially different readings. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date, capturing the full calendar day's temperature record from the airport station.

Shenzhen's August climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–35°C. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in an extremely low likelihood of the highest temperature falling into whichever range this contract specifies—likely an outlier scenario such as below 30°C or above 37°C. Comparable August temperature records at Bao'an show that readings below 31°C or above 36°C occur rarely; the airport's August average high sits around 32.5°C, with variability driven primarily by tropical storm systems and monsoon patterns rather than seasonal drift.

Traders monitoring this contract should track tropical cyclone forecasts and monsoon activity in the South China Sea during early-to-mid August 2026. Typhoon systems can suppress temperatures by 3–5°C through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems can elevate readings toward 35–36°C. The China Meteorological Administration and regional weather services issue 10-day forecasts by early August; these will provide the most actionable signal for reassessing the current 0% probability before settlement. Any significant divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket pricing on this contract would reflect differing assessments of tail-risk temperature scenarios.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.