Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The resolution hinges on data from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces material differences in recorded extremes. Shenzhen's August climate typically produces daily highs between 32–35°C, though heat waves can push readings above 37°C.

Historical August temperatures at Bao'an Airport show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, daily highs in August ranged from 29°C to 38°C, with the station recording temperatures exceeding 36°C on roughly 40 per cent of August days. The 0 per cent crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either an exceptionally cool August day or systematic uncertainty about the resolution methodology. Given Shenzhen's subtropical monsoon climate and typical August conditions, a reading below 28°C would constitute a statistical outlier requiring either unusual weather patterns or measurement anomalies.

Traders monitoring this contract should track tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early August 2026, as such systems can suppress temperatures significantly. The China Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal forecasts and monthly outlooks that may signal whether August 2026 is expected to follow climatological norms or deviate substantially. Verification of Weather Underground's data feed for Bao'an Airport ahead of settlement is advisable, given the explicit reliance on the Daily Observations table and potential discrepancies with other reporting sources.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.