Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded on 29 June 2026 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sits at 0%, suggesting the market views the contract as highly unlikely to resolve in favour of the implied range, despite historical patterns indicating summer highs regularly exceed 30°C.

Historical data frames this probability with caution: June daily highs at Pudong typically climb from 77°F to 83°F (25°C to 28°C), rarely falling below 69°F or exceeding 92°F (33°C), while summer peaks frequently surpass 30°C and reach 35°C during sunny spells[1][5]. This divergence between the 0% market implied probability and the consistent occurrence of temperatures above 30°C in comparable years suggests either a mispricing in the prediction market or an analyst consensus anticipating significant cooling, such as the light rain and thunderstorm risk noted for the 29th, which could suppress temperatures below the threshold[2][6].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates for the 29th, particularly the 25% risk of thunderstorms and light rain forecast, which are the primary catalysts for temperature suppression[6]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for all times on that day, making the timing of any precipitation event critical[7]. No sportsbook lines currently exist for this specific weather contract, leaving the prediction market as the sole venue for odds comparison, where the 0% probability starkly contrasts with the historical norm of summer highs exceeding 30°C.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.