Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026 will be recorded at the Pudong International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to a “YES” outcome, implying near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside the implied threshold, though the specific threshold is not stated in the market description. On Polymarket, the leading contender for the actual temperature is 35°C at 100% probability, while the range “28°C or lower” sits at 0% [1].

Historical July highs in Shanghai typically exceed 30°C, with frequent peaks reaching 34–37°C at Pudong Airport during heatwaves. A 0% implied probability for the market’s “YES” condition is therefore anomalous unless the threshold is set well above 37°C, which would be an extreme outlier for the region. Comparable cases from 2022–2024 show July 20 temperatures of 35.2°C, 36.8°C, and 34.9°C, reinforcing that 35°C is a plausible and common peak, aligning with Polymarket’s 100% line for that value [1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as the day progresses toward the 12:00 UTC settlement window. No scheduled announcements or policy shifts affect this weather event, but sudden shifts in cloud cover, humidity, or wind patterns could alter the peak. With the current date being 20 July 2026, 8:25 PM UTC, the day’s temperature data is already complete; the divergence between Polymarket’s 100% for 35°C and this market’s 0% YES suggests a mismatch in threshold definition or platform-specific odds framing rather than a fundamental disagreement on the likely temperature.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.