Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is experiencing rain and scattered showers today at the Pudong International Airport, with current conditions hovering around 30°C and a high probability of precipitation. This wet, unstable weather pattern contrasts sharply with the dry, scorching heat typically required to push temperatures into the upper 30s or low 40s, which explains why the market currently assigns a 0% probability to any outcome implying a record-breaking high.

Historical July data for Shanghai Pudong shows that while temperatures frequently reach 35–37°C during clear spells, the presence of rain and thunderstorms, as forecast for today, usually caps maximums near 32–34°C. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% aligns with this meteorological reality, mirroring the outcome of the adjacent July 15 market where 39°C was priced at 100% only after a confirmed dry, hot day, whereas today’s wet conditions make such extremes statistically implausible.

Traders should monitor the hourly Wunderground updates for the Pudong station, as the settlement relies exclusively on the highest recorded temperature for all times on 16 July 2026. With the Weather Network forecasting 90% precipitation probability and 1–3 mm of rain, the catalyst for any probability shift would be an unexpected, rapid clearing of clouds and cessation of showers, though current models from Meteoblue suggest a maximum of 36°C remains the upper bound under these cloudy, rainy conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.