Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 12 August 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records for that date, with the settlement contingent on the highest reading captured in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are not pricing meaningful odds for any particular temperature threshold, indicating either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish differentiated pricing across bands.

August temperatures in Shanghai typically range between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks above 37°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that mid-August highs have exceeded 35°C in roughly 70% of years, whilst readings above 38°C occur in approximately 15–20% of cases. The 0% probability reading across all ranges is anomalous relative to seasonal norms and suggests the market may lack sufficient trader participation or that resolution criteria specificity—particularly the reliance on Daily Observations rather than Day High & Low summaries—has created uncertainty about how outcomes will be classified.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide reliable 10-day outlooks. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during northern hemisphere summer can shift Shanghai's temperature patterns significantly; current oceanic indices warrant attention through July. The distinction between Weather Underground's data tables matters operationally, as discrepancies between automated station readings and summary figures have historically created settlement disputes on weather markets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.