Highest temperature in Seoul on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 29 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market focused on Seoul’s peak heat, with the crowd currently assigning only a 14% chance to the event exceeding 27°C. This low implied probability stands in sharp contrast to Polymarket’s frontrunner, which prices 27°C at 46%, revealing a meaningful divergence between cross-platform odds and the current sportsbook line. Analyst consensus, informed by recent heatwave trends, suggests the market may be underestimating the likelihood of extreme temperatures, particularly given South Korea’s record-breaking summer of 2024.

Historical data shows Seoul’s daily highs in June typically climb from 77°F to 81°F, rarely exceeding 87°F, yet the three hottest summers on record—1994, 2018, and 2024—each surpassed the previous peak, with 2024 flagged by the World Meteorological Organisation as the nation’s hottest summer [2][3]. Incheon, though slightly cooler than central Seoul, has witnessed temperatures approaching 35.8°C in recent years, and Hongcheon recorded an all-time national high of 41.0°C in 2025, underscoring the accelerating intensity of Korean heatwaves [4][6]. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave advisories and the timing of monsoon onset, as delayed rains could amplify peak temperatures. A recent Gwangju News report confirms heatwave days are increasing while cold waves decline, reinforcing the trend toward more extreme thermal events [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 29? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.