Highest temperature in Seoul on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is bracing for peak summer heat on 8 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport Station set to record the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows early July in Seoul has previously reached record highs of 37.8°C, the highest ever recorded between 1–10 July since records began[1]. Typical July averages hover near 30°C, but humidity often pushes the felt temperature above 34°C, especially at midday[2]. Despite this, the current crowd-implied probability of a YES outcome stands at 0%, suggesting traders expect temperatures to fall within a lower range than the historical extremes.

The key catalyst for traders is the ongoing monsoon season, known as Jangma, which typically lasts from late June to mid-July and can extend into late July[2]. Rainfall intensity is slightly elevated in July, with short but heavy downpours more concentrated than in June[2]. This weather pattern may suppress peak temperatures, aligning with the 0% YES probability. Traders should monitor real-time updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which currently forecasts rain with a 60% precipitation probability and temperatures feeling like 29°C[4]. Any sudden shift to clear skies or reduced rainfall could trigger a spike in temperature, challenging the current market consensus.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.