Highest temperature in Seoul on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces a critical heat threshold on 5 July 2026, with the market betting on whether the Incheon International Airport station will record a temperature exceeding a specific high range. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome suggests traders believe extreme heat is unlikely, yet historical data shows Seoul regularly hits 35°C+ in early July, with peaks reaching 37.8°C in 2023—the hottest early July in 117 years[4][6].

Comparable cases frame this 0% probability as potentially mispriced. In July, Seoul’s daily highs average 27–29°C (81–85°F), rarely falling below 23°C (74°F) or exceeding 33°C (91°F)[1]. The 2023 record of 37.7°C at Seoul’s main station and 41.0°C nationally at Hongcheon demonstrates that extreme outliers are possible, even if uncommon[2][4]. If the market assumes typical July conditions, it may be ignoring the volatility seen in recent heatwaves.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave advisories and Wunderground’s real-time updates for Incheon, as these will determine settlement[3]. A sudden shift in monsoon patterns or an intensifying heat dome could push temperatures above the threshold, invalidating the current 0% line. Recent news confirms South Korea is already grappling with record July temperatures, with officials warning of prolonged heat stress[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.