Highest temperature in Seoul on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s late-July heat profile is already leaning firmly towards a warm finish, but the contract settles on the highest reading at Incheon International Airport Station rather than the city-centre forecast itself. Current public forecasts around the date cluster in the low- to mid-30s Celsius for Seoul, with AccuWeather showing roughly 84°F/75°F for 31 July and Timeanddate’s outlook pointing to about 94°F/82°F, while the current crowd price of **0% YES** implies the market is treating the named temperature band as effectively out of reach. [1][11]

Historically, late-July Seoul often sits near its seasonal peak, and the comparison set matters because airport observations can differ from inland city forecasts by a degree or two in either direction. WeatherSpark describes July daily highs in Seoul as typically rising into the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, while June-to-August heatwaves can briefly push readings well above that baseline; SBS reported on 31 July that clear conditions and persistent heat were keeping Seoul near 34°C and parts of southern Korea closer to 38–40°C. That leaves the key question for this contract not whether it will be hot, but whether the airport station posts a one-day high that lands inside the market’s specified range. [2][12]

Traders should watch the overnight and midday forecast updates from the Korean Meteorological Administration, plus any change in cloud cover, wind direction, or rainfall timing that could cap the day’s maximum temperature. The main dependency is simple: if the heat ridge holds and skies stay clear, intraday highs at Incheon can still print close to the broader Seoul forecast, but a sea-breeze shift or even modest convective cloud can shave enough off the maximum to keep the contract on the current 0% side. [2][3][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.