Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is bracing for peak summer heat as traders assess the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures at Incheon International Airport on 13 July 2026. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific outcome suggests the market currently expects temperatures to fall outside the defined range, despite recent trends showing Seoul hitting 37.8°C in early July, the hottest such reading in 117 years [1][6].

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as potentially misaligned with seasonal volatility. July 2025 was South Korea’s second-hottest July since 1973, with a nationwide average of 27.1°C, while the all-time national record reached 41.0°C in Hongcheon [3][4]. Incheon typically tracks slightly cooler than central Seoul, yet average July highs in the city rarely fall below 29°C and can exceed 33°C, meaning a 0% implied probability for any meaningful heat spike warrants scrutiny against these comparable extremes [5].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July. Recent reports highlight a streak of super-hot tropical nights in Seoul, with overnight temperatures exceeding 25°C for 22 consecutive hours, indicating sustained atmospheric heat that could push daytime peaks higher [2]. With today’s conditions showing 84°F (29°C) and passing clouds at 2 AM UTC, the immediate trajectory suggests a warm day, though the specific threshold for this contract remains the critical variable to watch [8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.