Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero per cent probability to the "YES" side. This date falls squarely within South Korea’s monsoon season, known locally as *Jangma*, which typically spans late June to mid-July and brings intense humidity alongside short, heavy downpours. Historical data confirms that July is the wettest month in the region, with average temperatures hovering between 23°C and 30°C, while humidity levels frequently exceed 80%, making midday conditions feel significantly hotter than the actual air temperature [1][8].

Traders should monitor real-time aviation weather reports from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which already indicate a maximum of 29°C for Incheon on this morning, alongside cloud cover and light southerly winds [9]. The primary catalyst for any temperature spike would be a sudden break in the monsoon clouds allowing direct solar radiation to intensify surface heating, a scenario that has occurred in previous years when rain cleared early in the afternoon [1]. Analysts note that while temperatures rarely exceed 30°C during the rainy season, the combination of high humidity and residual moisture can create a "steam-like" effect that elevates perceived heat, though actual thermometer readings remain constrained by the prevailing cloud cover [1][3]. No significant divergence exists between sportsbook lines and prediction-market implied probabilities, as both reflect the overwhelming consensus that extreme heat is improbable under current monsoon conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.