Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s highest temperature is the key driver for this contract, but the market’s reference point is Incheon International Airport Station on the Weather Underground daily observations table, not the more visible day-high summary. The current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** is therefore a hard-outlier against the live weather picture, because the forecast and media consensus both point to extreme heat rather than a cool outlier day: AccuWeather’s August outlook shows highs around 84–88°F, while SBS reports Seoul expected to reach **39°C** today, with heatwave warnings expanded across the capital region.[1][2]

Historical context matters because August in Seoul is normally warm, but not usually at the upper end of today’s heatwave spike. WeatherSpark says August daily highs in Seoul typically sit around **81–85°F** and only rarely exceed **91°F**, which makes a sub-30°C outcome plausible on an average day but less so during an active heatwave.[12] That gap helps explain why a 0% market price looks detached from broader weather signals, even though prediction markets often stay pinned near zero until the relevant station observations are close to settlement and cross-platform comparison can show a bigger divide than the raw forecast alone.

For traders, the main catalysts are the late-day temperature path, any persistence of the heat advisory, and whether local convection or rain suppresses the airport station’s peak before the observation window closes. SBS says the heat should ease slightly from tomorrow, while rain is only expected to become more relevant over the weekend, suggesting the highest reading may still land today if the regional heat ridge holds through the afternoon.[2] The decisive check will be the Weather Underground daily observations for Incheon International Airport, since a discrepancy with any summary panel is explicitly settled in favour of the observations table.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.