Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 18 August 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across the crowd, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient trading activity to establish consensus pricing.

August temperatures in Seoul historically cluster between 28–32°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 35°C during heat waves. The city's summer monsoon season (jangma) typically concludes by mid-August, though tropical systems can elevate both humidity and peak daily temperatures. Weather Underground's Daily Observations data from Incheon station has shown consistent reliability for settlement purposes, though traders should note the explicit distinction between this granular dataset and the summary Day High & Low figures, which occasionally diverge by 0.5–1°C due to measurement timing. Cross-referencing with Korea Meteorological Administration records confirms Incheon's readings are generally representative of Seoul proper, though airport microclimates can introduce minor variance.

The primary catalyst affecting August 2026 temperatures will be the strength and timing of any late-summer high-pressure systems or tropical cyclones tracking through the Korean peninsula. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts 10–14 days ahead; traders should monitor these releases from early August onwards. Current sportsbook lines on regional Asian weather remain sparse, leaving prediction markets as the primary pricing mechanism. The 0% crowd probability warrants scrutiny—it may reflect genuine consensus on a particular range or simply thin liquidity awaiting price discovery as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.