Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across the crowd, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient trading volume to establish meaningful odds.

August temperatures in Seoul historically peak between 28–32°C, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing above 35°C. The city experienced a record high of 39.6°C in July 2018 during an exceptional heatwave. Current 0% crowd probability likely reflects either a narrow consensus around a particular range or sparse liquidity; cross-platform comparison with sportsbook weather derivatives and other prediction markets would reveal whether this represents genuine market agreement or simply thin trading. Historical volatility in Korean summer temperatures—driven by the East Asian monsoon and occasional tropical storm systems—means single-day forecasts carry material uncertainty even with modern meteorological models.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts from late July 2026 onwards, particularly alerts regarding heat domes or tropical systems approaching the peninsula. The timing of any heatwave relative to 12 August will be critical; seasonal patterns show August temperatures typically slightly lower than July peaks, though individual days can spike sharply. Any significant divergence between the crowd's current 0% reading and analyst consensus from established weather forecasting services would signal either mispricing or a need to reassess the underlying probability distribution across temperature bands.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.