Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station on 11 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. Seoul's August climate is characterised by intense heat and humidity; historical August highs at Incheon typically range between 28–32°C, with extreme readings occasionally exceeding 33°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in confidence that the temperature will fall below whatever threshold defines the lowest resolution bracket, though the specific temperature bands for this market remain unspecified in available documentation.

Seoul experiences pronounced seasonal weather patterns driven by the East Asian monsoon system and the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system. August 2026 forecasting depends on longer-range climate oscillations, particularly the state of the Western Pacific subtropical anticyclone and potential tropical cyclone activity in the region during that month. Recent summers have seen increasing frequency of extreme heat events; the Korea Meteorological Administration reported that summer 2023 saw multiple days exceeding 33°C across the Seoul metropolitan area. Traders should monitor late-July 2026 atmospheric patterns and any tropical storm development in the Western Pacific, as these will substantially influence early-August conditions.

The 0% probability across prediction markets and sportsbooks suggests either extremely tight bracketing of the lowest temperature range or market participants holding strong priors about August weather norms at this location. Cross-platform comparison data is limited, but the uniformity of pricing indicates consensus rather than meaningful divergence between venues. Resolution hinges on precise Daily Observations data retrieval from Weather Underground's historical records.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.